- Chiara Poletto got a position as researcher at Inserm. Yay!
- Few people left our group (Livio Bioglio, Giancarlo De Luca, Eugenio Valdano, Pietro Coletti), but two PhD students joined us, Francesco Pinotti and Caroline Guerrisi.
- Vittoria Colizza gave two keynote speeches, at SIAM (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics) Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, United States, July 2016, and at ESCAIDE, the European Scientific Conference on Applied Infectious Disease Epidemiology organized by the ECDC (European Center for Disease Prevention and Control), Stockholm, Sweden, November 2016.
- We published a third work on MERS explaining the observed heterogeneity in onward transmission following importation, and a study on the comparison between Chikungunya and Zika epidemics.
- Vittoria Colizza became a Google 'Solve for X' Scientist (Solve for X is a global community that aims to surface brilliant scientific innovations and technological breakthroughs, that have the potential to solve big global problems facing humanity) at the Solve for X European Flagship Event in Berlin, Sept 2015
- Chiara Poletto was awarded the grant Émergence @ Sorbonnes Universités, the project Joint modelling of influenza diffusion and evolution: a data driven computationally intensive approach will soon start; please check out her job opening!
- Vittoria Colizza was invited to present at Solutions for COP21 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference that was held in Paris, December 2015.
- We have a new video presenting Grippenet.fr, our participatory platform for influenza surveillance in France.
- Vittoria Colizza was awarded the Telethon Farmindustria Award.
- Chiara Poletto was awarded the Junior Scientific Award from the Complex System Society.
OK, it's been quite some time we haven't been updating our webpage (>1 year?) - except for the papers. So, here's what happened in the last few months (in random order):
In occasion of the 10th anniversary of the ERC (European research Council), Telethon Farmindustria awards a Research Prize to Vittoria Colizza as the youngest female researcher recipient of an ERC in Italy in the field of Life Sciences. The prize was presented by Dr. Francesca Pasinelli, General Director of Telethon, and by the Italian Ministry of Health, Mrs. Beatrice Lorenzin, in the awesome framework of the Camera di Commercio in Rome. The event was an occasion to promote initiatives to better understand the relation between gender and health.
A postdoctoral position is available at the EPIcx lab within the UMR S 1136 ‘Surveillance and modeling of infectious diseases’ of the INSERM. The candidate is expected to work within the framework of the project FluDE funded by Émergence @ Sorbonne Universités with the aim of jointly analyzing spread and evolution of seasonal influenza with data driven approaches.
We are looking for a strongly motivated person with excellent skills in computational modeling, data collection and analysis, and a keen interest in multidisciplinary research. The candidate should have a PhD (or expect to have one for the starting date) in quantitative science, such as physics, applied mathematics, computer science, epidemiology or any close related discipline. Proven ability to work independently and to quickly adapt to new scientific environments are essential for this position. Good communicative skills to successfully collaborate with the other members of the group, and a good knowledge of both oral and written English are required.
The selected candidate will join the EPIcx lab at INSERM UMR S 1136 in Paris, France and will work in collaboration with Dr. Chiara Poletto. The topics of the work will be marked by the objectives of FluDE, which include the mechanistic modeling of influenza spatial spread and evolution in the French territory through a computational approach. The work will be conducted in collaboration with the Team 1 of UMR S 1136, including the Surveillance Network group within the Team (responsible for GP influenza surveillance in France), and the other partners of the project, including the Team 2 at INSERM 1136 (‘Epidemiology of Influenza and viral hepatitis: risk, prognosis and therapeutic options’), the Institute Pasteur in Paris and the Rega Institute in Leuven. Research tasks will be computational programming (development of data-driven models, agent-based approaches), the analysis and characterization of simulation output and their comparison with empirical data (including incidence and genetic data). Experience with data-intensive computational modeling, agent-based approaches and data analysis is highly desirable.
The position is full-time and fixed-term available for one year in the first instance. Applications will be continuously received and evaluated until the position is filled.
Applications should be submitted to Dr. Chiara Poletto via email (firstname.lastname@example.org) and must include:
• letter of motivation;
• CV including the list of publications;
• up to 3 selected preprints/publications most relevant for this position;
• 2 letters of reference.
We published a new paper on the commonalities and differences in the Chikungunya and Zika transmission. We analysed 18 epidemics caused by the two viruses occurring in 9 distinct island territories. Through a hierarchical TSIR model we showed that population and territory, more than virus, determine variation in the epidemic transmission potential. At the same time, however, the two viruses cause very different level of case detectability, with Zika associated to higher under reporting of cases.
We analysed also the role of weather in transmission, identifying an effect of precipitation. Increased precipitation showed a dual effect, first reducing transmission after a two-week delay, then increasing it around five weeks later.
A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission,
J. Riou, C. Poletto, P.Y. Boëlle
Epidemics in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.001 (2017)
Five years after the standardized framework was set in place, we present the main results achieved by Influenzanet, a participatory system for the surveillance of influenza-like-illness in the general population, involving 10 countries in Europe:
Participatory Syndromic Surveillance of Influenza in Europe
C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, T Hanslik, I Bonmarin, D Levy-Bruhl, D Perrotta, D Paolotti, R Smallenburg, C Koppeschaar, AO Franco, R Mexia, WJ Edmunds, B Sile, R Pebody, E van Straten, S Meloni, Y Moreno, J Duggan, C Kjelsø, V Colizza
Journal of Infectious Diseases 214, S386 (2016)
A big thanks to all our participants.
In our recently published paper, we compare an epidemic simulated with a mass-action principle and one simulated on a real network of evolving contacts between hosts. The aim is to identify the best homogeneous mixing approximation to capture the 'real' epidemic unfolding on the time-resolved pattern of contacts.
We find that it is possible to recalibrate the epidemic parameters (reproductive number and recovery rate) of the homogeneous mixing to describe the contact network epidemic with good accuracy in different epidemiological and social contexts. Most importantly, recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters of the epidemic contact network and independent of changes in groups, group sizes, and total population sizes.
This was a collaboration with Alain Barrat's group in Marseille:
Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings
L Bioglio, M Génois, CL Vestergaard, C Poletto, A Barrat, V Colizza
BMC Infectious Diseases 16, 676 (2016)
Drivers of MERS importation and onward transmission: international travel, transmission settings and awareness
A new paper is out!
Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO
C Poletto, PY Boelle, V Colizza
BMC Infectious Diseases 16, 448 (2016)
We systematically analysed imported cases of MERS out of Middle East occurring the last 3 years to study the drivers of MERS importation and onward transmission.
We showed that the risk of importation can be quantified based on two ingredients: the incidence profile in the source area, and the international traveling flux connecting the source with country of destination. We thus confirmed that air traffic information is a precious tool for epidemic risk assessment both in the early and long-term spreading regime.
Analysing the risk of local transmission following importation, we recovered two main finding. First, MERS transmission is more efficient in hospital settings than at home or in the community. Second, the duration of hospitalisation prior to isolation shorten when global awareness to the disease, as measured by digital proxies, is high. Through the use of digital proxies (e.g. Google Trends) we were thus able to explicitly measure awareness in time and relate it to a quantifiable change of behaviour, further illustrating its impact on transmission.
Attention to MERS along the time as measured by Google Trends, versus duration of hospitalisation of imported cases out of Middle East. Period of high attention are marked by the shaded areas and importation events occurring on that time are coloured in red. They display shorter hospitalisation period than when attention is low.
We just got published 2 new papers.
Our work on the systematic characterization of the temporal and geographical variations affecting MERS epidemic in the Middle East region shows a stronger spatial component for the zoonotic route of transmission of the disease than for the human-to-human route.
Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach
C Poletto, V Colizza, PY Boelle
Epidemics, in press (2015) doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001
Last spring we published a new approach to compute analytically the epidemic threshold of a SIS process unfolding on an arbitrary temporal network. In our last paper we extend this approach, called infection propagator approach, to SIR, SIRS processes and also explore the impact that a limited time resolution in the network knowledge has on the estimation of the threshold value.
Infection propagator approach to compute epidemic thresholds on temporal networks: impact of immunity and of limited temporal resolution
E Valdano, C Poletto, V Colizza
European Physical Journal B 88, 341 (2015)
Vaccination is the main preventive measure advocated by WHO against influenza. At risk groups are recommended to vaccinate against influenza at the start of the season every year. But vaccination coverage figures are still far from the objectives established in Europe. In this new paper we measure the coverage in France and explore what is the sentiment of the general population associated to flu vaccination.
Opinion about seasonal influenza vaccination among the general population 3 years after the A(H1N1)pdm2009 influenza pandemic
K Boirona, M Sarazin, M Debina, J Raude, L Rossignol, C Guerrisi, D Odinkemelu, T Hanslik, V Colizza, T Blanchon
Vaccine, in press (2015) doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.08.067