Modelling the Dynamics of Behavioural Adaptation During Epidemics

CCS Satellite

3-5 September 2025, Siena, Italy

Concept

Human behaviour and infectious diseases represent a complex intertwined dynamical system. As an epidemic unfolds, individuals may be required to comply with public health mandates, such as quarantine orders, travel restrictions, or mask mandates. Compliance with these measures necessitates behavioural adaptations, as individuals adjust their routines and interactions to align with the imposed directives. In the absence of such directives, individuals may also spontaneously adapt their behaviour (reducing contacts, avoiding at-risk settings, wearing masks or increasing hygiene practices). However, shifting perceptions of risk and pandemic fatigue can reduce compliance with safe health behaviours. These behavioural changes impact the progression of the disease, which is why incorporating them into epidemiological models is crucial for accurate outbreak predictions and for guiding effective public health responses.

By recognizing the critical role of human behaviour in disease dynamics, the infectious disease modelling community has implemented several theoretical approaches to incorporate behavioural responses into epidemiological models. For instance, multilayer network, game-theoretic, and compartmental models often simulate behavioural adaptations through changes in contact rates, network structures, and transmission rates. These approaches have demonstrated that dynamic behavioural responses can reproduce complex epidemic patterns—such as multiple waves and plateaus—as observed in real outbreaks.

Despite these efforts, the integration of behavioural mechanisms into epidemic models remains challenging due to the lack of data needed to parametrize them. While the COVID-19 pandemic has provided a wealth of behavioural data, offering an unprecedented opportunity to improve model parameterization, this data is not always directly translatable into model mechanisms. Instead, many approaches still rely on simplistic assumptions and often do not capture the multiple interacting factors shaping behavioural responses (including individual experiences, cultural norms, and policy contexts). Therefore, scientific progress in modelling infectious diseases requires a collaborative effort to develop a common framework for model conceptualization, data collection and integration, and results interpretation. With this satellite, our objective is to provide an arena for such an exchange between infectious disease modellers and social scientists.

Concept

Submission guidelines

We invite applicants focusing on transmissible infectious diseases whose dynamic is linked with human behaviour, and social scientists examining individual and population responses to epidemics. This satellite will focus on the following topics:

Modelling and integrating behavioural change: approaches to conceptualizing, simulating, and integrating human behavioural change in infectious disease models, including emerging techniques such as causal inference and artificial intelligence.
Evaluating policy-driven control measures: studies on how behavioural changes interact with government-imposed interventions, including lockdowns, travel restrictions, and information campaigns.
Heterogeneity in behavioural responses: investigations into how diverse socioeconomic and demographic factors affect individual and collective responses to epidemics.
Behavioural data sources: Utilization of unconventional datasets to inform models of human behaviour during disease outbreaks.
Sociopsychological effects of interventions: research on the psychological and societal impacts of enforced public health measures, including compliance, mental health outcomes, and public perception.

Application Process

Applicants are invited to prepare a 1-page PDF (500 words max). Applications open on 1 May 2025 and close on 27 May 2025 at 17:00 CEST time.

Evaluation

The organizers of the satellite will review the submitted abstract and provide a notice of acceptance/rejection by 15 June 2025. The assessment of the submitted abstracts will take into account the scientific quality as well as the relevance of the contribution to the satellite and the broad CCS audience. Selected abstracts will be granted a 15' slot for an oral presentation (12' talk + 3' Q&A).

Concept