The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic has spread to 23 countries from China. Local cycles of transmission already occurred in 7 countries following case importation. No African country has reported cases yet. The management and control of 2019-nCoV introductions heavily relies on country’s health capacity. We evaluated the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of 2019-nCoV.
Global distribution of introduction risk over human population density (left) and distribution of the SPAR capacity index (top right) and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI, bottom right). Countries with no estimates of introduction risk correspond to situations where the risk of entry was found to be negligible at the time of analysis.
We published a new paper about the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe.
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020
G Pullano, F Pinotti, E Valdano, P-Y Boëlle, C Poletto, V Colizza, Euro Surveill. 2020;25(4):pii=2000057
As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimated the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We considered travel restrictions in place in Wuhan, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.
Starting December 2019, cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported in the city of Wuhan, in China. The infective pathogen was later identified to be a novel coronavirus, called 2019-nCoV. Here we report an analysis on the risk of importation estimated for Europe.
THE REPORT IS AVAILABLE HERE.
We have a new preprint on the study of healthcare-associated infections:
Reorganization of nurse scheduling reduces the risk of healthcare associated infections
E Valdano, C Poletto, PY Boelle, V Colizza
We use time-referenced contact data measured by Sociopatterns sensors at a short-stay geriatric ward of a hospital in Lyon. After studying the activity pattern of nurses, we propose a proof-of-concept modeling study for hospital infection control based on the reorganization of care in a hospital ward through changes in the schedule of work shifts of nurses.
The reorganized schedule maintains full staff capacity at any given time, preserves all time-referenced contacts recorded in the dataset without affecting quality standards of medical services, and respects basic occupational constraints (weekly workload, length of a work shift).
Reorganizing nurses' schedules reduce HAI risk by 27%, thus offering an alternative change of practice to substantially limit HAI risk in the ward while ensuring the timeliness and quality of healthcare services. In the study we identify a roadmap to include optimization of nurse scheduling practices in programs for better infection control in hospitals.
This study is done within the framework of the SPHINX project.
We are entering into Fall with a whole bunch of news - Summer has been super busy with the sabbatical months of Prof. Shweta Bansal and her lab at EPIcx, the visit of collaborators from the University of La Havana (Cuba), and 5 Master students.
In random order:
2 new papers. Over summer we published 2 new papers on the digital surveillance cohort Grippenet.fr.
Man flu or woman flu? We analyzed 6 full influenza season with Grippenet.fr data to recover commonly known risk factors for an ILI episode and discover new ones. We found that women are at higher risk of contracting the infection, even after discounting for household composition and contacts with children. An addition to the interesting debate about man vs. woman flu, we'll look further into this problem integrating the database of GP surveillance.
Factors associated with influenza-like-illness: a crowdsourced cohort study from 2012/13 to 2017/18
C Guerrisi, M Ecollan, C Souty, L Rossignol, C Turbelin, M Debin, T Goronflot, P-Y Boëlle, T Hanslik, V Colizza, T Blanchon
BMC Public Health 19, 879 (2019)
From recommended to mandatory vaccination. On January 1st, 2018, France changed its policy for vaccinations against childhood diseases, changing 8 recommended vaccines into mandatory. We asked Grippenet.fr population about their opinion on this change of policy. 2/3 of the French population were in favor with the measure, though 60% found it to be authoritarian. A nice editorial on how vaccination policies are currently evolving in Europe accompanied the article.
Population perception of mandatory childhood vaccination programme before its implementation, France, 2017
P Mathieu, A Gautier, J Raude, T Goronflot, T Launay, M Debin, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, T Hanslik, C Jestin, V Colizza, T Blanchon, L Rossignol
Eurosurveillance 24(25):pii=1900053 (2019)
1 student ends, 1 student starts. Caroline Guerrisi will soon finish her PhD, with a defense planned for November 20 to discuss her work on digital surveillance in France. Here's her thesis. Laura Di Domenico, currently finishing her Master between the University of Trento, Dept of Mathematics, and INSERM, will enroll the PhD School of Public Health next November to work on the CDR4EBOLA project.
4 new grants. We got 4 new grants selected over summer, these have been amazing months. More details here, new cycle at EPIcx soon to start, massive hiring ahead!
EPIcx freshens up. We took advantage of these months of great events to update and freshen up the lab website to reflect the evolution of the lab. You will see some changes.
Networks2021. This is the very first Joint Sunbelt and NetSci Conference, hosted by IUNI in Washington, DC, in July 2021. Vittoria Colizza is member of the Steering Committee. It is going to be a unique and exciting event - the biggest network conference ever?!
Time to celebrate, summer 2019 has been particularly generous and we've been awarded 4 grants, yay! Here they are:
CDR4Ebola - Socio-behavioral response to 2014 West Africa Ebola virus epidemic measured from mobile phone data
funded by INSERM, INRIA, in collaboration with Orange.
RISKFLOW - Uncovering HIV risk flow networks to improve current approaches for controlling HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa
funded by Sorbonne Universite, Programme Emergence, in collaboration with UCLA.
funded by ANR (French National Funding Agency for Research), in collaboration with CNRS, ENS-Lyon.
MOOD - Monitoring outbreak events for disease surveillance in a data science context
funded by EC - H2020 - this is a huge Consortium with 25 partners.
MASSIVE HIRING ahead!
We published a new paper about the impact of host contact structure on the ecology of multiple strains
Host contact dynamics shapes richness and dominance of pathogen strains
F Pinotti, E Fleury, D Guillemot, P-Y Böelle, C Poletto, PLoS Computational Biology
We considered a population of individuals interacting through a time varying network. New individuals and strains continuously enter and leave the system. We explored different scenarios in terms of host contact structure and characterised the resulting pathogen ecosystem through ecological indicators. We found that contact heterogeneities reduce strain richness, i.e. the number of co-circulating strains, favouring the dominance of few strains. Our results have far-reaching consequences for multi-strain pathogens such as Staphylococcus aureus, suggesting that contact structure is an important driver of strain diversity.
Our article has been featured on the top of the journal home!
Open PhD position at the University of Greenwich on Modelling behavioural changes induced by infectious disease via physical activity trackers
Deadline is Friday, April 12 2019. Full info here:
Don't miss this amazing opportunity!
PhD position open at the University of Exeter on Modeling epidemic spreading in cattle herds in collaboration with EPIcx lab
A call is open for a PhD position at the University of Exeter, UK, with Prof. Ronaldo Menezes on Modeling epidemic spreading in cattle herds. This is a joint collaboration with Vittoria Colizza (EPIcx lab) and Dr. Christiane Rocha (Federal University of Lavras, Brazil).
Deadline is Friday, March 15, 2019.
Full info here:
Don't miss it!