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Paper accepted on the assessment of the MERS-CoV epidemic situation in the Middle East region

1/29/2014

We study the outbreak of MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus) in order to assess the epidemic situation in the Middle East region and to provide risk assessment. Our paper Assessment of the MERS-CoV epidemic situation in the Middle East region C. Poletto, C. Pelat, D. Levy-Bruhl, Y. Yazdanpanah, P.-Y. Boelle, V. Colizza has been accepted for publication on Eurosurveillance and it is now available on arxiv.

We designed an integrative maximum likelihood approach based on cluster data in the ME region and of case importations out of the region. By combining different epidemiological information the model allows for multiple parameters’ estimates, quantifying the relative role of zoonotic versus human-to-human transmission and providing assessment of the epidemic extent in the ME region and of the risk associated to international spread.

Paper out on the impact of heterogeneous mixing and travel behavior on the spatial spread of epidemics

1/26/2014

People behave differently in the way they travel and have social interaction. These two layers of heterogeneity may substantially impact the spatial propagation of infections. In

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour
A. Apolloni, C. Poletto, J. J. Ramasco, P. Jensen, V. Colizza,
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 11 (1), 3 (2014)

we provided a general theoretical framework that couple a multi-host model for the heterogeneous mixing among individuals with the metapopulation approach. We address the impact on the invasion potential of an epidemic of social partition of the population and across group mixing, relative social activity and travel attitude of different social groups. The framework provides important information for pandemic preparedness studies to identify adequate interventions, as well as in an emerging epidemic situation to assess the pandemic potential of the pathogen.

Scheme of the model:The spatial layer, based on the metapopulation approach, describes the space structure and the mobility of individuals. The social layer describes the contact structure within each subpopulation

Tracking contacts at InVS: preliminary results

1/16/2014

Alain Barrat, currently visiting our lab, presents today the results obtained from the SocioPatterns deployment at the InVS (French Institute of Health Surveillance). It took place last June/July for a total of two weeks with the aim of tracking contacts at the Institute during regular working days (pauses, meetings, and lunch breaks included). Six different departments were considered. The work is part of the HARMS-flu project, in collaboration with the CNRS, Inserm and the InVS; see more details on the project webpage.

Paper accepted on the assessment of the MERS-CoV epidemic situation in the Middle East region

Paper out on the impact of heterogeneous mixing and travel behavior on the spatial spread of epidemics

Tracking contacts at InVS: preliminary results

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