We published 3 papers this summer, approaching very different epidemic contexts (bovine brucellosis, varicella, influenza) with different methods.
With the first paper we were able to explain the persistence of bovine brucellosis in southern Italy, that is a matter of great concern for animal health and welfare, trade and commerce and economic reasons. Based on a network approach coupled with detailed cattle trade movements and outbreak data, we found that more efficient biosecurity measures in the north and limited compliance to trade regulations for epidemic control in the south are key factors explaining the diverse success of Italian regions in eradicating brucellosis.
We were also able to identify for the first time illegal trade behavior from data!
The study was a collaboration with the IZS - Italian Agency for Animal Health (Teramo, Italy).
Network-based assessment of the vulnerability of Italian regions to bovine brucellosis
A Darbon, E Valdano, C Poletto, A Giovannini, L Savini, L Candeloro, V Colizza
Preventive Veterinary Medicine 158, 25 (2018)
The second paper highlighted the role of changes in children contacts in daycare over time, also due to higher attendance, in the dynamics of varicella transmission in France. We used an agent-based model with data-driven contacts obtained from a large scale survey conducted in France. This study was a collaboration with the lab of Stefano Merler at Fondazione Bruno Kessler (Trento, Italy).
With the first paper we were able to explain the persistence of bovine brucellosis in southern Italy, that is a matter of great concern for animal health and welfare, trade and commerce and economic reasons. Based on a network approach coupled with detailed cattle trade movements and outbreak data, we found that more efficient biosecurity measures in the north and limited compliance to trade regulations for epidemic control in the south are key factors explaining the diverse success of Italian regions in eradicating brucellosis.
We were also able to identify for the first time illegal trade behavior from data!
The study was a collaboration with the IZS - Italian Agency for Animal Health (Teramo, Italy).
Network-based assessment of the vulnerability of Italian regions to bovine brucellosis
A Darbon, E Valdano, C Poletto, A Giovannini, L Savini, L Candeloro, V Colizza
Preventive Veterinary Medicine 158, 25 (2018)
The second paper highlighted the role of changes in children contacts in daycare over time, also due to higher attendance, in the dynamics of varicella transmission in France. We used an agent-based model with data-driven contacts obtained from a large scale survey conducted in France. This study was a collaboration with the lab of Stefano Merler at Fondazione Bruno Kessler (Trento, Italy).
Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015
V Marziano, P Poletti, G Béraud, P-Y Boëlle, S Merler, V Colizza
PLoS Computational Biology 14(8): e1006334 (2018)
V Marziano, P Poletti, G Béraud, P-Y Boëlle, S Merler, V Colizza
PLoS Computational Biology 14(8): e1006334 (2018)
In the third paper we analyzed 30 influenza seasons in France to characterize their season-by-season variability both in the start of the epidemic and in the time of the epidemic peak. We introduced a clustering approach to assess the deviations from typical spreading patterns and identified groups of seasons whose behavior largely deviates from the features of a typical season well-known in the literature. This study was a collaboration with Reseau Sentinelles, the disease surveillance team in France.
Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics
P Coletti, C Poletto, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, V Colizza
Scientific Reports 8, 12786 (2018)
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