We published a new paper on the commonalities and differences in the Chikungunya and Zika transmission. We analysed 18 epidemics caused by the two viruses occurring in 9 distinct island territories. Through a hierarchical TSIR model we showed that population and territory, more than virus, determine variation in the epidemic transmission potential. At the same time, however, the two viruses cause very different level of case detectability, with Zika associated to higher under reporting of cases.
We analysed also the role of weather in transmission, identifying an effect of precipitation. Increased precipitation showed a dual effect, first reducing transmission after a two-week delay, then increasing it around five weeks later.
A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission,
J. Riou, C. Poletto, P.Y. Boëlle
Epidemics in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.001 (2017)
We analysed also the role of weather in transmission, identifying an effect of precipitation. Increased precipitation showed a dual effect, first reducing transmission after a two-week delay, then increasing it around five weeks later.
A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission,
J. Riou, C. Poletto, P.Y. Boëlle
Epidemics in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.001 (2017)
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