We study the outbreak of MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus) in order to assess the epidemic situation in the Middle East region and to provide risk assessment. Our paper Assessment of the MERS-CoV epidemic situation in the Middle East region C. Poletto, C. Pelat, D. Levy-Bruhl, Y. Yazdanpanah, P.-Y. Boelle, V. Colizza has been accepted for publication on Eurosurveillance and it is now available on arxiv.
We designed an integrative maximum likelihood approach based on cluster data in the ME region and of case importations out of the region. By combining different epidemiological information the model allows for multiple parameters’ estimates, quantifying the relative role of zoonotic versus human-to-human transmission and providing assessment of the epidemic extent in the ME region and of the risk associated to international spread.
We designed an integrative maximum likelihood approach based on cluster data in the ME region and of case importations out of the region. By combining different epidemiological information the model allows for multiple parameters’ estimates, quantifying the relative role of zoonotic versus human-to-human transmission and providing assessment of the epidemic extent in the ME region and of the risk associated to international spread.
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