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Preprints

Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection
JA Moreno López, B Arregui-Garcĺa, P Bentkowski, L Bioglio, F Pinotti, PY Boëlle, A Barrat, V Colizza, C Poletto

Can we safely reopen schools during COVID-19 epidemic?  
L Di Domenico, G Pullano, CE Sabbatini, P-Y Boelle, V Colizza

Are people excessively pessimistic about coronavirus infection?
J Raude, M Debin, C Souty, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, A Falchi, I Bonmarin, D Paolotti, Y Moreno, C Obi, J Duggan, A Wisniak, A Flahault, T Blanchon, V Colizza 

Reorganization of nurse scheduling reduces the risk of healthcare associated infections
E Valdano, C Poletto, PY Boelle, V Colizza

Social fluidity mobilizes contagion in human and animal populations
E Colman, V Colizza, EM Hanks, AP Modlmeier, DP Hughes, S Bansal

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2021

Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France
P Bosetti, C Tran Kiem, Y Yazdanpanah, A Fontanet, B Lina, V Colizza, S Cauchemez
Eurosurveillance 
26(1):pii=2001978 (2021)

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2020

Underdetection of COVID-19 cases in France threatens epidemic control
G Pullano, L Di Domenico, CE Sabbatini, E Valdano, C Turbelin, M Debin, C Guerrisi, C Kengne-Kuetche, C Souty, T Hanslik, T Blanchon, PY Boëlle, J Figoni, S Vaux, C Campèse, S Bernard-Stoecklin, V Colizza
Nature (2020) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03095-6 
See also Nature News & Views.
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Keeping Low Reproductive Number Despite the Rebound Population Mobility in Korea, a Country Never under Lockdown during the COVID-19 Pandemic
S Kim, Y Kim, K Peck, Y Ko, J Lee, E Jung
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (2020)

Evaluating the effect of demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, and risk aversion on mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic in France under lockdown: a population-based study
G Pullano, E Valdano, N Scarpa, S Rubrichi, V Colizza
The Lancet Digital Health, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30243-0 (2020)

Accommodating individual travel history and unsampled diversity in Bayesian phylogeographic inference of SARS-CoV-2
P Lemey, SL Hong, V Hill, G Baele, C Poletto, V Colizza, Á O’Toole, JT McCrone, KG Andersen, M Worobey, MI Nelson, A Rambaut, MA Suchard
Nature Communications 11, 5110 (2020)

Active and inactive quarantine in epidemic spreading on adaptive activity-driven networks
M Mancastroppa, R Burioni, V Colizza, A Vezzani
Physical Review E 102, 020301(R) (2020) 

Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies
L Di Domenico, G Pullano, CE Sabbatini, P-Y Boëlle, V Colizza
BMC Medicine 18, 240 (2020)

Determinants and risk factors of gastroenteritis in the general population, a web-based cohort between 2014 and 2017 in France
M Ecollan, C Guerrisi, C Souty, L Rossignol, C Turbelin, T Hanslik, V Colizza, T Blanchon
BMC Public Health 20, 1146 (2020)

Tracing and analysis of 288 early SARS-CoV-2 infections outside China: A modeling study
F Pinotti, L Di Domenico, E Ortega, M Mancastroppa, G Pullano, E Valdano, P-Y Boelle, C Poletto, V Colizza
PLOS Medicine 17(7): e1003193 (2020) 

Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa
D Colombi, C Poletto, E Nakouné, H Bourhy, V Colizza
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(5): e0008317 (2020)

Mobile phone data for informing public health actions across the COVID-19 pandemic lifecycle
N Oliver, B Lepri, H Sterly,  R Lambiotte, S Delataille, M De Nadai, E Letouzé, A Ali Salah, R Benjamins, C Cattuto, V Colizza, N de Cordes, SP Fraiberger, T Koebe, S Lehmann, J Murillo, A Pentland, P N Pham, F Pivetta,  J Saramäki, SV Scarpino, M Tizzoni, S Verhulst, P Vinck
Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.abc0764 (2020)

Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020
PY Boëlle, C Souty, T Launay, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, S Behillil, V Enouf, C Poletto, B Lina, S van der Werf, D Lévy-Bruhl, V Colizza, T Hanslik, T Blanchon
Eurosurveillance 25(14):pii=2000326 (2020)

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
M Gilbert, G Pullano, F Pinotti, E Valdano, C Poletto, PY Boelle, E D'Ortenzio, Y Yazdanpanah, SP Eholie, M Altmann, B Gutierrez, M U. G. Kraemer, V Colizza
The Lancet S0140-6736(20)30411-6 (2020)

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020
G Pullano, F Pinotti, E Valdano, P-Y Boëlle, C Poletto, V Colizza
Eurosurveillance 25(4):pii=2000057 (2020)
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2019

Factors associated with influenza-like-illness: a crowdsourced cohort study from 2012/13 to 2017/18
C Guerrisi, M Ecollan, C Souty, L Rossignol, C Turbelin, M Debin, T Goronflot, P-Y Boëlle, T Hanslik, V Colizza, T Blanchon
BMC Public Health 19, 879 (2019)

Population perception of mandatory childhood vaccination programme before its implementation, France, 2017
P Mathieu, A Gautier, J Raude, T Goronflot, T Launay, M Debin, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, T Hanslik, C Jestin, V Colizza, T Blanchon, L Rossignol
Eurosurveillance 24(25):pii=1900053 (2019)

Host contact dynamics shapes richness and dominance of pathogen strains
F Pinotti, E Fleury, D Guillemot, P-Y Böelle, C Poletto​
PLoS Computational Biology 15(5): e1006530 (2019)

Unsupervised Extraction of Epidemic Syndromes from Participatory Influenza Surveillance Self-reported Symptoms
K Kalimeri, M Delfino, C Cattuto, D Perrotta, V Colizza, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, J Duggan, J Edmunds, C Obi, R Pebody, R Mexia, A Franco, Y Moreno, S Meloni, C Koppeschaar, C Kjelsø, D Paolotti
PLoS Computational Biology 
15(4): e1006173 (2019)

Farm productive contexts and the dynamics of bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) transmission​
B Iotti, E Valdano, L Savini, L Candeloro, A Giovannini, S Rosati, V Colizza, M Giacobini
Preventive Veterinary Medicine 165, 23 (2019)


Mechanisms for lyssavirus persistence in non-synanthropic bats in Europe: insights from a modeling study
D Colombi, J Serra-Cobo, R Métras, A Apolloni, C Poletto, M López-Roig, H Bourhy, V Colizza
Scientific Reports 9, 537 (2019)

Disease persistence on temporal contact networks accounting for heterogeneous infectious periods
A Darbon, D Colombi, E Valdano, L Savini, A Giovannini, V Colizza
Royal Society Open Science 6, 181404 (2019)

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2018

Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics
P Coletti, C Poletto, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, V Colizza
Scientific Reports 8, 12786 (2018)

Network-based assessment of the vulnerability of Italian regions to bovine brucellosis
A Darbon, E Valdano, C Poletto, A Giovannini, L Savini, L Candeloro, V Colizza
Preventive Veterinary Medicine 158, 25 (2018)

Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015
V Marziano, P Poletti, G Béraud, P-Y Boëlle, S Merler, V Colizza
PLoS Computational Biology 14(8): e1006334 (2018)

​The potential value of crowdsourced surveillance systems in supplementing sentinel influenza networks: the case of France
C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, C Souty, C Poletto, T Blanchon, T Hanslik, I Bonmarin, D Levy-Bruhl, V Colizza
Eurosurveillance 23(25):pii=1700337 (2018)

Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data
J Riou, C Poletto, P-Y Boëlle 
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12(6): e0006526 (2018)

The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium 
G De Luca, K Van Kerckhove, P Coletti, C Poletto, N Bossuyt, N Hens, V Colizza
BMC Infectious Diseases 18, 29 (2018)

Epidemic threshold in continuous-time evolving networks 
E Valdano, M Re Fiorentin, C Poletto, and V Colizza
Physical Review Letters  120, 068302 (2018)
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2017

Healthcare-seeking behaviour in case of influenza-like illness in the French general population and factors associated with a GP consultation: an observational prospective study
M Ariza, C Guerrisi, C Souty, L Rossignol, C Turbelin, T Hanslik, V Colizza, T Blanchon
BJGP Open bjgpopen17X101253 (2017)

Influenzanet: Citizens Among 10 Countries Collaborating to Monitor Influenza in Europe
CE Koppeschaar, V Colizza, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, J Duggan, WJ Edmunds, C Kjelsø, R Mexia, Y Moreno, S Meloni, D Paolotti, D Perrotta, E van Straten, AO Franco
JMIR Public Health Surveill 3(3):e66 (2017)

Assessing the use of mobile phone data to describe recurrent mobility patterns in spatial epidemic models
C Panigutti, M Tizzoni, P Bajardi, Z Smoreda, V Colizza
Royal Society Open Science 4, 160950 (2017)

Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens,
A Aleta, ANS Hisi, S Meloni, C Poletto, V Colizza, Y Moreno
Royal Society Open Science 4: 160914 (2017)
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A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission,
 J. Riou, C. Poletto, P.Y. Boëlle
Epidemics 19, 43 (2017​)​ 


2016

Participatory Syndromic Surveillance of Influenza in Europe
C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, T Hanslik, I Bonmarin, D Levy-Bruhl, D Perrotta, D Paolotti, R Smallenburg, C Koppeschaar, AO Franco, R Mexia, WJ Edmunds, B Sile, R Pebody, E van Straten, S Meloni, Y Moreno, J Duggan, C Kjelsø, V Colizza
Journal of Infectious Diseases 214, S386 (2016)

Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings
L Bioglio, M Génois, CL Vestergaard, C Poletto, A Barrat, V Colizza
BMC Infectious Diseases 16, 676 (2016)

Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO
C Poletto, PY Boelle, V Colizza
BMC Infectious Diseases 16, 448 (2016)

Influenza during pregnancy: Incidence, vaccination coverage and attitudes toward vaccination in the French web-based cohort G-GrippeNet
P Loubet, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, B Blondel, O Launay, M Bardou, F Goffinet, V Colizza, T Hanslik, S Kernéis
Vaccine 34, 2390 (2016)

Impact of spatially constrained sampling of temporal contact networks on the evaluation of the epidemic risk
​
C Vestergaard, E Valdano, M Génois, C Poletto, V Colizza, A Barrat
European Journal of Applied Mathematics  27, 941 ​(2016)

First nationwide web-based surveillance system for influenza-like illness in pregnant women: participation and representativeness of the French G-GrippeNet cohort
P Loubet, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, B Blondel, O Launay, M Bardou, T Blanchon, I Bonmarin, F Goffinet, P Ancel, V Colizza, T Hanslik, S Kernéis
BMC Public Health 16, 253 (2016)
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Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach
C Poletto, V Colizza, PY Boelle
Epidemics 15, 1 (2016) 


2015

Infection propagator approach to compute epidemic thresholds on temporal networks: impact of immunity and of limited temporal resolution
E Valdano, C Poletto, V Colizza
European Physical Journal B 88, 341 (2015)

Opinion about seasonal influenza vaccination among the general population 3 years after the A(H1N1)pdm2009 influenza pandemic
K Boirona, M Sarazin, M Debina, J Raude, L Rossignol, C Guerrisi, D Odinkemelu, T Hanslik, V Colizza, T Blanchon
Vaccine 33, 6849 (2015)

Analytical computation of the epidemic threshold on temporal networks
E Valdano, L Ferreri, C Poletto, V Colizza
Physical Review X  5, 021005 (2015) 
[Python code] [Physics highlight]

Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data
E Valdano, C Poletto, A Giovannini, D Palma, L Savini, V Colizza
PLoS Computational Biology 11(3): e1004152 (2015)
[PCB cover]

Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments
C Poletto, S Meloni, A Van Metre, V Colizza, Y Moreno, A Vespignani
Scientific Reports 5, 7895 (2015)



2014

Association between Recruitment Methods and Attrition in Internet-Based Studies.
P Bajardi , D Paolotti, A Vespignani,  K Eames, S Funk, W J Edmunds, C Turbelin, M Debin, V Colizza, R Smallenburg, C Koppeschaar, A O Franco, V Faustino, A Carnahan, M Rehn, F Merletti, J Douwes, R Firestone, L Richiardi
PLoS ONE 9(12): e114925 (2014)

Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic.
C Poletto, MF C Gomes, A Pastore y Piontti, L Rossi, L Bioglio, DL Chao, IM Longini, ME Halloran, V Colizza, A Vespignani
Eurosurveillance 19:42 (2014)

The representativeness of a European multi-center network for influenza-like-illness participatory surveillance. 
P Cantarelli, M Debin, C Turbelin, C Poletto, T Blanchon, A Falchi, T Hanslik, I Bonmarin, D Levy-Bruhl, A Micheletti, D Paolotti, A Vespignani, J Edmunds, K Eames, R Smallenburg, C Koppeschaar, A O Franco, V Faustino, A Carnahan, M Rehn, V Colizza 
BMC Public Health 14:984 (2014)

Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas. 
S Cauchemez, M Ledrans, C Poletto, P Quenel, H de Valk, V Colizza, P-Y Boëlle
Eurosurveillance 19:28 (2014)

On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics
M Tizzoni, P Bajardi, A Decuyper, G Kon Kam King, C Schneider, V Blondel, Z Smoreda, M Gonzalez, V Colizza
PLOS Computational Biology 10(7): e1003716 (2014)

Assessment of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the Middle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach
C Poletto, C Pelat, D Levy-Bruhl, Y Yazdanpanah, PY Boelle, V Colizza
Eurosurveillance 19(23): pii20824 (2014)

Determinants of follow-up participation in the Internet-based European Influenza Surveillance platform Influenzanet 
P Bajardi, A Vepsignani, S Funk, KTD Eames, J Edmunds, C Turbelin, M Debin, V Colizza,
R Smallenburg, C Koppeschaar, AO Franco, V Faustino, A Carnahan, M Rehn, D Paolotti
Journal of Medical Internet Research 16(3), e78 (2014) 

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour 
A. Apolloni, C. Poletto, J. J. Ramasco, P. Jensen, V. Colizza, 
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 11 (1), 3 (2014)

Effectiveness of 2012-2013 influenza vaccine against influenza-like-illness in general population: estimation in a French web-based cohort
M Debin, V Colizza, T Blanchon, T Hanslik, C Turbelin, A Falchi 
Human Vaccine & Immunotherapeutics 10(3), 1 (2014)

Web-based participatory surveillance of infectious diseases: the Influenzanet participatory surveillance experience
D Paolotti, A Carnahan, V Colizza, K Eames, J Edmunds, G Gomes, C Koppeschaar, M Rehn, R Smallenburg, C Turbelin,
S Van Noort, A Vespignani
Clinical Microbiology and Infection 20:17-21 (2014).



2013

Human mobility and time spent at destination: Impact on spatial epidemic spreading.
C Poletto, M Tizzoni and V Colizza 
Journal of Theoretical Biology 338:41-58 (2013). 

Empirical temporal networks of face-to-face human interactions
A Barrat, C Cattuto, V Colizza, F Gesualdo, L Isella, E Pandolfi, J-F Pinton, L Rava, C Rizzo, M Romano, J Stehle, AE Tozzi, W Van den Broeck
European Physical Journal Special Topics 222, 1295 (2013).

Evaluating the feasibility and participants' representativeness of an online nationwide surveillance system for influenza in France
M Debin, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, I Bonmarin, A Falchi, T Hanslik, D Levy-Bruhl, C Poletto, V Colizza
PLOS ONE 8(9):e73675 (2013).

Host mobility drives pathogen competition in spatially structured populations
C Poletto, S Meloni, V Colizza, Y Moreno, A Vespignani
PLOS Computational Biology 9(8): e1003169 (2013).

Age-specific contacts and travel patterns in the spatial spread of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic
A Apolloni, C Poletto, V Colizza.
BMC Infectious Diseases 13, 176 (2013).



2012

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
M Tizzoni, P Bajardi, C Poletto, JJ Ramasco, D Balcan, B Goncalves, N Perra, V Colizza, A Vespignani.
BMC Medicine 10, 165 (2012).

Heterogeneous length of stay of hosts’ movements and spatial epidemic spread
C Poletto,  M Tizzoni,  V Colizza
Scientific Reports 2, 476  (2012).

Optimizing surveillance for livestock disease spreading through animal movements
P Bajardi, A Barrat, L Savini, V Colizza
Journal of Royal Society Interface 9, 2814-2825 (2012).



2011

Simulation of an SIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees
J Stehle, N Voirin, A Barrat, C Cattuto, V Colizza, L Isella, C Regis, J-F Pinton, N Khanafer, W Van den Broeck, P Vanhems
BMC Medicine 9, 87 (2011).

Dynamical patterns of cattle trade movements
P Bajardi, A Barrat, F Natale, L Savini, V Colizza
PLoS ONE 6(5), e19869 (2011).

Close encounters in a pediatric ward: measuring face-to-face proximity and mixing patterns with wearable sensors
L Isella, M Romano, A Barrat, C Cattuto, V Colizza, W Van den Broeck, F Gesualdo, E Pandolfi, L Rava, C Rizzo, AE Tozzi
PLoS ONE 6(2), e17144 (2011).

Assessing the exotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response
AC Singer, V Colizza, H Schmitt, J Andrews, D Balcan, WE Huang, VDJ Keller, A Vespignani, R Williams
Environmental Health Perspectives 119, 1084-1090 (2011). 

The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale
W Van den Broeck,  C Gioannini, B Gonçalves, M. Quaggiotto, V Colizza, A Vespignani
BMC Infectious Diseases 11, 37 (2011). 
Access the recommendation on F1000Prime
Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic
P Bajardi, C Poletto, JJ Ramasco, M Tizzoni, V Colizza, A Vespignani
PLoS ONE 6(1), e16591 (2011).




2010

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model
D Balcan, B Goncalves, H Hu, JJ Ramasco, V Colizza, A Vespignani
Journal of Computational Science 1, 132 (2010).
 
Dynamics of person-to-person interactions from distributed RFID sensor networks
C Cattuto, W Van den Broeck, A Barrat, V Colizza, J-F Pinton, A Vespignani
PLoS ONE 5(7), e11596 (2010).
 
Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
M Ajelli, B Goncalves, D Balcan, V Colizza, H Hu, JJ Ramasco, S Merler, A Vespignani
BMC Infectious Diseases 10, 190 (2010).



2009

Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases
D Balcan, V Colizza, B Goncalves, H Hu, JJ Ramasco, A Vespignani
Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106, 21484 (2009). 
[cover]

Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
P Bajardi, C Poletto, D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani
Emerging Health Threats Journal 2:e11 (2009).

Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
D. Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, P Bajardi, C Poletto, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani
BMC Medicine 7, 45 (2009).
Access the recommendation on F1000Prime
WiFi networks and malware epidemiology
H. Hu. S. Myers, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani
Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106, 1318-1323 (2009).



2008

Prominence and Control: The Weighted Rich-Club Effect
T. Opsahl, V. Colizza, P.Panzarasa, J.J. Ramasco 
Phys Rev Lett 101, 168702 (2008).

Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: Theory and simulations
V. Colizza, A. Vespignani 
J. Theor. Biol. 251, 450-467 (2008).


For publications prior to 2008 (the birth of EPIcx lab), visit here.


Book chapters

Epidemic spreading and complex networks
A. Barrat, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani
in UNESCO-EOLSS Encyclopedia of Life Support System (2010).

Modeling WiFi Malware Epidemics
H. Hu, S. Myers, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani
in Crimeware, M. Jakobsson & Z. Ramzan editors (Symantec Press, Addison Wesley, 2008)